Sometimes I listen to the financial programs on the radio. It’s fascinating to hear the different takes on the stock market. Some shows claim that they have methods for timing the market and others say that timing the market is impossible. Some say buy and hold is the only way to invest and others say that you have to watch your investments and know when to get out. Some say that real estate is one of the worst investments and others say it’s one of the best.
Advice about casino gambling is very similar tothe advice that’s available about the stock market. Casino advisors basically break down into two major types: Those that believe in the numbers and those that believe in luck. I would argue that both views are correct – some of the time.
By the numbers, there are certainly some games that are better to play than others. One of the most famous example of this is video poker versus slot machines. The idea is that you can’t tell what the odds are when you play a slot machine and you have no say in the outcome. But in video poker you have the choice of holding certain cards and the odds can be precisely calculated. While that may be true, from what I’ve seen, there’s a lot of unlucky video poker players.
On the other hand, some of the biggest winners are slot machine players. And keno players. Those are supposedly some of the worst games in the casino. So what’s going on?
As I said, there’s a certain amount of truth in both views as to what’s going on. In the long run, the numbers will work out in favor of the casino. Usually. And in the short run, you can win at at any game. The battle between luck and the numbers is about even in the short run.
So what have we learned from these observations? For most players it will boil down to this: When you’re hot you’re hot, when you’re not you’re not. Yeah, yeah, not very profound, but it’s true.
May the good news be yours.
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