Wynn Resorts could generate more gaming revenue than expected from its planned casino resort in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Wolfe Research said. The investment firm cites the emerging market and Singapore, where a handful of integrated resorts have delivered strong financial results.
Wolfe Research Predicts Strong Wynn Recovery on UAE Casino Expansion
Wolfe Research analyst Peter Supino believes Wynn Al Marjan Island could exceed the company’s current forecasts. The assessment comes as Wynn Resorts shares are down some 37% year-to-date in 2026. Wolfe Research believes the stock will make a big comeback and sees it up as much as 60% by the end of 2027.
The project is a significant opportunity for Wynn to extend its luxury hospitality business into a new market. Supino believes the UAE has a lot of tourism potential and a demand for high-end hotels, entertainment, and regulated casino gaming.
The country’s location may also help draw international visitors. Luxury rooms will account for 43% of the UAE’s planned additions of hotel rooms through 2030, according to real estate consultancy Knight Frank. In addition, about one third of the world’s population is within a four-hour flight of the country.
Wolfe Research makes a useful comparison to Singapore, as both markets have a strong tourism demand but a limited number of casino resorts. Today, Singapore is home to two of the world’s most profitable gaming properties, both major integrated resorts: Marina Bay Sands and Resorts World Sentosa.
The UAE could one day host four or five casino resorts, according to industry projections. Therefore, Wynn Al Marjan Island could capture a significant share of the country’s gaming revenues, especially in the first few years of operation.
Wynn Al Marjan Island Could Drive Share Gains With $570M Earnings Forecast
Previous estimates had pegged the UAE’s gross gaming revenue at $3 billion to $5 billion annually as more properties come online. Wynn’s December 2025 projections show the Al Marjan Island property could generate up to $1.66 billion in annual gaming revenue.
Adjusted property earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, after management fees, are also expected to be in the range of $390 million to $570 million annually, the company said.
Wolfe Research values Wynn’s 40% stake in the development at around $48 per share. The $128 price target reflects 8.5 times projected 2028 adjusted EBITDA plus the value of the UAE investment.
However, the outlook is not without its risks. Supino said he sees pressure on Wynn’s near-term financial performance in Macau where the company owns two integrated resorts. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have also added to uncertainty surrounding the UAE expansion.
Wynn Al Marjan Island is slated to open in September 2027 and is expected to be the first integrated resort in the Middle East with a licensed commercial casino. The development is located off the coast of Ras Al Khaimah and is estimated to be worth some $5.7 billion.
Construction updates earlier in 2026 noted progress on the main tower, guest accommodations and supporting infrastructure for the resort. Wynn also announced in March that work continued after a brief pause over the regional conflict involving Iran.
If the property can meet or beat its financial targets, it could be a big earnings booster for Wynn Resorts. The market has yet to price in that potential, Wolfe Research said, and the UAE project is a key part of its bullish view on the company’s shares.